Rio Rancho, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS65 KABQ 082324
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

- A rapid warmup with dry conditions expected this week.
  Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal and around
  record values come mid to late this week.

- Breezy to locally windy conditions expected this afternoon and
  Wednesday afternoon across north central areas and the eastern
  highlands. Breezy to locally windy conditions areawide this
  weekend.

- Minor heat-related impacts are possible throughout the week for
  those outside for an extended period of time without taking
  proper precautions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Outside a brief cooldown across eastern NM on Thursday due to a weak
backdoor front, temperatures will be well above normal to around
record levels areawide through Sunday! Light winds are generally
expected during the work week outside of some breezy winds Wednesday
afternoon across north central areas and the northeast and central
highlands. Southwest and west winds pick up areawide Saturday with
windy conditions across the north central areas and the northeast
and central highlands Sunday. These stronger winds will increase the
risk for rapid fire spread after days of dry and warm conditions.
Cooler early next week behind a backdoor cold front with rain
chances possibly returning across eastern areas come next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Light to moderate northwest flow aloft will persist through
Wedenesday before slowing up as pressure heights rise associated
with a building upper high over northwest MX. The warming will
continue, with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast to reach an
average 10 degrees above average across the area. Albuquerque is
forecast to hit 80 degrees for the first time this calendar year on
Wednesday. The warm temperatures will bring fairly deep atmospheric
mixing and late day breeziness/gustiness. Otherwise, winds will be
light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

A backdoor front in association with an upper level trough moving
across the upper Midwest will have pushed through eastern NM
Thursday morning. This will cool temperatures across this part of
the state closer to average. Meanwhile, a building ridge of high
pressure over the Intermountain West will allow highs across central
NM and western NM to increase even more. 500 mb heights across this
part of the state will be around 586 to 589 dam which is greater
than record values for this time of year based on sounding
climatology at KABQ. This will result in highs across western and
central NM of around 10 to 15 degrees above average. The backdoor
front looks to squeak through the gaps of the central mountain chain
Thursday night bringing a light to at most moderate east canyon wind
to the ABQ Metro. Guidance has the east wind peaking at around 20
kts. The ridge axis moves over the state on Friday resulting in even
warmer temperatures across western and central NM with highs 15 to
20 degrees above average. Records will be challenged or broken for
several locations across western NM with near record highs across
central NM. Eastern NM warms back up to the upper 70s to low 80s
thanks to the increasing heights and some downsloping from south to
southwest flow.

The ridge shifts over the Great Plains and central U.S. with
increasing downslope southwest and west flow moving over the state
south of a trough moving into the Pacific NW. This will be the
warmest day of the forecast period areawide with highs 15 to 20
degrees above average for mid April! Records will be challenged or
broken areawide! With temps in the 80s for most and low to mid 90s
across southern and east central areas, heat safety and proper
hydration will be need to kept in mind for those spending a
prolonged period outside. Southwest and west winds will be breezy
across the highlands due to strengthening 500-700 mb flow of 20 to
35 kts. Winds increase further on Sunday, especially across the
highlands, as stronger 500-700 mb winds of 35 to 45 kts moves
overhead south of the upper low moving across the northern Rockies
and Great Plains. Winds could get to Wind Advisory criteria across
the northeast and central highlands Sunday afternoon. The downslope
west winds will keep temperatures near record levels across central
and eastern NM, while western NM cools down with highs around 10
degrees above average due to lowering 500 mb heights. Additionally,
these winds combined with the well above average to near record
temps and several days of drying will bring back the risk for rapid
fire spread.

The upper low moves over the Great Lakes Monday. A building surface
high in it`s wake over the Great Plains will send a backdoor cold
front through eastern NM during the morning hours. This backdoor
front along with a further lowering of 500 mb heights to 576 to 580
dam will allow temperatures to cool back down close to average
across eastern NM and around 4 to 8 degrees above average across
central and western NM. Rain chances could return to eastern areas
next Tuesday due to return flow from the Gulf behind the backdoor
front combining with lift from an approaching upper low/ open wave
trough over Arizona and northwest Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions will prevail across northern
and central New Mexico with some high, fair weather cirrus clouds
periodically moving overhead, mainly in the northern half of the
state. Moderate breezes will subside around sunset, only to
redevelop in the late morning and early afternoon Wednesday when
gusts of 18 to 25 kt will be common again. High-based cumulus
clouds will develop over northeastern New Mexico late Wednesday
afternoon, and there is a low probability (10-20 percent chance)
that these might produce some sprinkles or very light evaporating
rainfall (virga) that could lead to isolated areas of gusty winds
beneath.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Dry and unusually warm conditions with late day gustiness will
persist through the work week under the influence of an expanding
upper level ridge of high pressure. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will return Friday, but critical fire weather
conditions will ramp up through the weekend as the upper level ridge
moves east and is replaced with increasing westerlies. Sunday will
be the windier day with more widespread critical to extremely
critical fire weather conditions, but Saturday will be more hot, dry
and unstable. Humidity recovery will deteriorate across western NM
through the work week and then deteriorate areawide over the weekend
and become poor. Lower confidence forecast early next week involving
an approaching Pacific trough bringing more critical fire weather
conditions or potentially some wetting precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  77  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  29  73  30  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  34  71  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  28  77  29  81 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  73  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  32  77  33  81 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  36  75  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  44  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  38  75  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  80  36  86 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  37  84  39  90 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  66  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  44  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  40  73  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  34  69  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  31  59  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  27  65  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  29  72  30  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  36  70  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  37  78  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  42  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  38  77  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  48  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  39  82  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  80  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  38  83  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  43  81  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  36  82  41  86 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  42  81  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  37  82  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  47  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  44  80  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  46  84  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  44  75  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  40  76  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  31  77  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  73  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  41  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  76  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  39  72  38  66 /   0   5   0   0
Raton...........................  36  77  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  35  78  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  38  74  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  45  77  43  71 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  41  77  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  45  84  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  45  82  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  46  82  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  46  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  44  83  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  84  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  45  87  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  83  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  80  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...52

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Wednesday, April 9.